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Tymoshenko case through eyes of voters

http://ratinggroup.com.ua/en/products/politic/data/entry/13966/
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2011/09/29

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Y. Tymoshenko is believed to be guilty of "gas case" rather than not guilty. However, the vast majority of respondents are inclined to believe that Tymoshenko case is a political persecution and therefore insist on its closing or on the mitigation of sentence.

46% of respondents believe that Y. Tymoshenko is rather guilty of crimes she is accused of by public prosecution, namely, abuse of power and authority in signing gas contracts with Russia in 2009.

34% - believe that Y. Tymoshenko is rather unguilty. 20% - are undecided on this issue.

Y. Tymoshenko is believed to be guilty rather than unguilty in the East, in the South of Ukraine and in Donbas. At the same time, in the West the opposite view prevails and the ex-prime minister is believed to be unguilty rather than guilty. In the North and in the Center of Ukraine opinions are divided almost by half.

More than 70% of supporters of the Party of Regions, the Communist Party and the People's Party insist on the ex-premier’s guilt. As well as almost a half of supporters of the party UDAR. However, almost a half of supporters of Freedom, Front for Change, Civil Position and almost 95% of supporters of Batkivshchyna believe Y. Tymoshenko is not guilty of crimes, which she is accused of by public prosecution.

However, only 26% of respondents believe that the criminal case against Y. Tymoshenko is rather the observance of law, while the majority (54%) insists that it is a political persecution of authorities. The remaining 20% are undecided on this issue.

As compared to January 2011, the number of respondents, who consider Tymoshenko criminal case to be rather the observance of law, has decreased from 36 to 26%, while the number of those who believe it is a political persecution has increased from 46 to 54%.

The idea of ​​political persecution prevails in all regions except Donbas, where opinions have divided into almost equal parts, and there is the largest number of people who are undecided on this issue. A quarter of supporters of the Party of Regions, almost 40% of supporters of the CPU, UDAR and the People's Party agreed that Y. Tymoshenko case was a political persecution. Among supporters of Freedom, Front for Change and the Civil Position nearly 80% think the same way. This opinion is supported by one half of the so-called "against all" group.

Only 28% of respondents believe that when signing gas contracts with Russia in 2009, Y. Tymoshenko has acted for the benefit of Ukraine. 4% of respondents believe that Y. Tymoshenko has acted for the benefit of Russia and 44% - for her own benefit. Another quarter of respondents are undecided on this issue.

One third of supporters of Freedom, Front for Change and Civil Position believe that when signing gas agreements Y. Tymoshenko has acted for the benefit of Ukraine, the same number of supporters believe that the former prime minister has acted for her own benefit. Interestingly, the majority of supporters of the version that Y. Tymoshenko has acted for the benefit of Russia, are among voters of Freedom (at least one in ten respondents thinks so).

The number of respondents who believe that when signing gas agreements Y. Tymoshenko has acted for the benefit of Ukraine only exceeds the number of those who support the version that the former prime minister has acted for her own benefit in the West and in the Center of Ukraine.

Only 24% of respondents believe that the verdict in Tymoshenko case on gas contracts in 2009 should be imprisonment by the decision of the court. 11% - support nominal sentence or amnesty after the court’s decision on deprivation of liberty.

Instead, 22% of respondents believe that it is necessary to recognize that gas contracts in 2009 were not beneficial for Ukraine, yet Y. Tymoshenko should be released from criminal liability, other 20% think that all charges against the ex-premier should be dropped.

Thus, the majority of respondents insist on the closing of the criminal case (42%) or on the commutation of sentence (11%).

22% of respondents are undecided on this issue.

Only 39% of respondents in Donbas, about 30% - in the South and in the East, every fifth - in the North, about 10% in the Centre and in the West support the imprisonment of Y. Tymoshenko. The majority of citizens (over a half) in the West and in the North of Ukraine insist on closing of the criminal case.

Only 13% of respondents are willing to personally participate in protest actions demanding the release of Y. Tymoshenko from investigative isolation ward / prison. Instead, 78% - are not ready to support such protests. Other 9% are undecided on this issue.

Supporters of Batkivshchyna (60%) and Freedom (30%) are the most willing to participate in protest actions demanding the release of Y. Tymoshenko. According to regions – a quarter in the West, almost 20% in the North and more than 10% in the Center.

 


The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older.

Optional quantity: 2000 respondents.

The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face).

Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 2,2%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,3.

The period of completion: 17-27 of September 2011

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.

Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.

North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.

South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol

East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.

Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.


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