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Electoral moods of the population of Ukraine: Deсember 2011

http://ratinggroup.com.ua/en/products/politic/data/entry/13981/
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2011/12/20

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According to the research conducted by the Sociological group "Rating", if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in December 2011, 36% of respondents would definitely participate in them; 37% would likely participate. Voters of Batkivshchyna, Freedom and the CPU are the most mobilized.

RESULTS:

If elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took place in December 2011, 20.3% of respondents (among those who intend to participate in elections) would vote for Batkivshchyna, 19.4% - for the Party of Regions 11.3% - for the Front for Change , 8.1% - for the Communist party, 5% - for V. Klychko’s party UDAR, 4.4% - for Freedom. Other 2.3% of voters would support Civil Position, 1.2% - the People's Party, 1% - Our Ukraine.

Other parties would be supported by 3.5% of voters, 9.4% - would not support any of the parties ("against all"), 14% - have not decided on their choice.

Voters would like to see the Front for Change (33%), Batkivshchyna (28%), the Party of Regions (21%), UDAR (21%), Freedom (16%), the CPU (15%) and Civil Position (15 %) in the future parliament most of all. Less than 10% of respondents would like to see the rest of political forces in the future parliament.

According to respondents, the Party of Regions (56%), Batkivshchyna (45%), the Front for Change (41%), the CPU (23%), Freedom (17 %) and UDAR (14%) have the greatest chances to overcome the 5% barrier and get to the next parliament - these political forces currently have the highest support among voters.

Only 7% of respondents believe that has chances to overcome the barrier, while twice as many respondents would like to see this party in the next parliament. Voters estimated chances of the Civil Position even worse than chances of the People's Party, which only 7% of respondents would want to see in the next parliament.

Residents of the Western Ukraine would like to see Batkivshchyna, the Front for Change and Freedom in the parliament most of all, residents of the Center and theNorth - Batkivshchyna, the Front for Change and UDAR, residents of the South - the Party of Regions and the Communist Party, residents of the East – the Front for Change and the Party of Regions, residents of Donbass – the Party of Regions, the Communist Party and the Progressive socialist Party.

In addition to its own supporters, the Front for Change is wanted in the parliament by voters of Batkivshchyna and Freedom, Batkivshchyna – by voters of Freedom and the Front for Change, Freedom – by voters of the Front for Change, Civil Position and Batkivshchyna.

The CPU is wanted in the parliament by voters of the Party of Regions, UDAR - by voters of Freedom, the Front for Change and Batkivshchyna, the Party of Regions – by the Communists, Civil Position – by supporters of Freedom and the Front for Change.

Chances of the Party of Regions to pass into the parliament are estimated the highest in the East, in the North and in Donbas, Batkivshchyna – in the North and in the West, the Front for Change – in the North, in the West and in the East, Freedom – in the West and in the North, the CPU – in the East and in Donbas, UDAR - only in the North.

31% of respondents expect that the next parliamentary elections will result in the formation of the majority in the parliament that will rather cooperate with the President, 39% - expect the formation of an opposition majority. 30% - could not respond.

The formation of the pro-presidential majority is expected by about 40% of residents of the East and Donbas, the opposition majority –by about one half of residents of the West, the North and the Center of the country.

Over 70% of supporters of the Party of Regions and only a half of the Communists expect the majority in the new parliament to cooperate with the President V. Yanukovych.

However, over 80% of supporters of Freedom, over 70% - of Batkivshchyna, 60% - of the Front for Change and almost a half of supporters of UDAR expect that the majority in the new parliament will rather be oppositional to the President. Supporters of Civil Position (35%)are the least confident in the victory of the opposition.

If presidential elections in Ukraine were held in December 2011, 18.9% of respondents (among those who intend to participate in elections) would vote for V. Yanukovych, 18.9% - for Y. Tymoshenko, 12.8% - for A. Yatseniuk, 6% - for P. Symonenko, 5.5% - for V. Klychko, 3.9% - for A. Hrytsenko, 3.7% - for O. Tiahnybok, 2.7% - for S. Tihipko. Other candidates were supported by almost 5% of respondents, 7.8% - did not support any of the candidates ("against all"), 14.5% - have not decided.

TENDENCIES:

The key tendency of the month is increased support for the CPU (from 5% in November to 8% in December), which took place primarily in the East, in Donbas, and in the Centre of Ukraine.

Accordingly, at constant rates of Batkivshchyna (20%), the Party of Regions (19%) yields the precedence primarily due to overflows to the CPU. Yet, if the Front for Change takes away votes from Batkivshchyna in the nearest future (which is quite possible, as this party has the greatest chances of such overflows), the Party of Regions will regain the first place and it will not be due to the increase of its own ratings, but due to the loss of supporters by its main competitor.

Thus, we can observe the tendency towards the gradual blurring of ratings of traditional leaders. In support of this statement, the Front for Change (up to 11%) and Freedom (up to 4%) have somewhat increased their ratings over the last month. The party UDAR also has stable positions on the edge of passing the 5% barrier.

A. Hrytsenko has also added over the last month (4%), but his personal rating is almost twice as high as the party rating, which does not allow Civil Position to pass the barrier.

 

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older.

Optional quantity: 2000 respondents.

The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face).

Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 2,2%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1,3.

The period of completion: 3-15 of December 2011

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.

Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.

North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.

South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol

East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.

Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka.


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