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Ratings of politicians in presidential elections: February 2013

http://ratinggroup.com.ua/en/products/politic/data/entry/14049/
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2013/03/06

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According to results of the survey conducted by the Sociological group "Rating", if presidential electionsin Ukraine occurred in the end of February 2013, about 70% of voters would participate in them.

In particular, 25.1% of respondents (among those who would participate in elections) would support V. Yanukovych, 15.1% - V. Klychko, 13.9% - Y. Tymoshenko, 7.9% - O. Tiahnybok 7.7% - P. Symonenko, 7.4% - A.Yatsenyuk. Other politicians are less supported: 1.7% - A. Hrytsenko, 1.5% - S. Tihipko, 1.2% - P. Poroshenko, 1.1% - N. Korolevska, other politicians - 4%, ​​undecided - 11.1%, "against all" - 2.3%.

If Y. Tymoshenko will not participate in elections, the three leaders are as follows: V. Yanukovych would be supported by 25.1% of respondents, V. Klychko – by 16.8%, A.Yatsenyuk – by 15.1%. In addition, 8.9% would support O. Tiahnybok, 7.7% - P. Symonenko, 2.2% - A. Hrytsenko, 1.7% - S. Tihipko, 1.4% - P. Poroshenko 1 4% - N. Korolevska, other politicians - more than 4%, undecided - 12.6%, "against all" - 2.3%.

It is important to add that almost 60% of supporters of Y. Tymoshenko (if the latter will not participate in elections) are ready to vote for A.Yatsenyuk in the first round of elections, every tenth voter would support V. Klychko, the same number of voters – O. Tiahnybok, every sixth voter is either undecided or "against all".

Thus, if presidential elections in Ukraine took place in the end of February 2013, then V. Yanukovych’s opponent in the second round of elections would either be V. Klychko or A.Yatsenyuk (Y. Tymoshenko).

Taking into account the fact that united opposition forces receive higher support in the community, V. Yanukovych risks losing the second round of presidential elections to almost any of the leaders of opposition parties represented in the parliament. In addition to that, chances of V. Klychko are currently the highest, A.Yatsenyuk’s and Y. Tymoshenko’s chances of victory are also high, O. Tiahnybok’s chances are a little lower.

Thus, if presidential elections in Ukraine occurred in the end of February 2013 and V. Yanukovych and V. Klychko entered the second round, then 30.2% of respondents (among those who intend to vote) would support the current president, 49% - the leader of the party UDAR, 11.6% - would not support any of the candidates and 9.2% - are undecided.

If V. Yanukovych and A. Yatsenyuk entered the second round, then 33% of respondents would support the current head of the state, 40% - the leader of Batkivshchyna, 18.4% - would not support any of the candidates and 8.6% - are undecided in their choice.

If V. Yanukovych and Y. Tymoshenko entered the second round, then 33.2% of respondents would support the current president, 36.4% - the former prime minister and the leader of Batkivshchyna, 22.4% - would not support any of the candidates and 8 % - are undecided.

If V. Yanukovych and O.Tiahnybok entered the second round, then 33.5% of respondents would support the current head of the state, 32.3% - the leader of Freedom, 23.4% - would not support any of the candidates and 10.8% - are undecided in their choice.

It should be added that over the year "the second round ratings" have increased significantly for V. Klychko (from 37 to 49%) and O. Tiahnybok (from 24 to 32%). As well as A. Yatsenyuk (from 38 to 40%). On the other hand, ratings of the current President have also increased, yet this increase is not as significant.

Despite the fact that the presidential rating of A.Yatsenyuk yields to that of Y. Tymoshenko (by almost 50%), in the second round he would be supported by more voters than Y. Tymoshenko. V. Klychko’s voters are less inclined to support A. Yatsenyuk and Y. Tymoshenko in the second round than vice versa. Similarly, A.Yatsenyuk’s voters are less inclined to support O. Tiahnybok. Interestingly, A.Yatsenyuk’s voters are also less inclined to support Y. Tymoshenko. However, A.Yatsenyuk enters the second round, he will be supported by almost 90% of Y. Tymoshenko’s supporters, by 75% of V. Klychko’s supporters, by 60% of O.Tiahnybok’s supporters.

Supporters of P. Symonenko and S. Tihipko will rather vote for V. Yanukovych and supporters of A. Hrytsenko and P. Poroshenko –against him.

 

The target audience of the research: the population of Ukraine aged from 18 and older.

Optional quantity: 2000 respondents.

The methods of investigation: personal formalized interview according to the questionnaire (face to face).

Measure of inaccuracy for the values close to 50% is less than 2.8%, for the values close to 30% – less than 2.6%, for the values close to 10% – less than 1.7%.

The period of completion: 22-28 of February 2013

The oblast’ distribution:

West: Volyns’ka, Transcarpathia, Ivano–Frankivs’ka, L’vivs’ka, Rivnens’ka, Ternopil’s’ka, Chernivets’ka.

Centre: Vinnyts’ka, Kirovograds’ka, Poltavs’ka, Khmel’nyts’ka, Cherkas’ka.

North: Kyiv, Kyivs’ka, Zhytomyrs’ka, Sums’ka, Chernihivs’ka.

South: AR Crimea, Odes’ka, Khersons’ka, Mykolaivs’ka, Sevastopol

East: Dnipropetrovs’ka, Zaporiz’ka, Kharkivs’ka.

Donbass: Donets’ka, Luhans’ka


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